Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 0.042065 0.047449 0.053419 0.060559 0.068905 0.078395 0.090066
2026-02-08 0.034310 0.041153 0.049343 0.059968 0.073536 0.090483 0.113574
2026-02-15 0.028754 0.036348 0.046057 0.059598 0.078354 0.103962 0.142552
2026-02-22 0.024767 0.032836 0.043798 0.060169 0.084704 0.121317 0.182571
2026-03-01 0.021514 0.029779 0.041650 0.060551 0.091111 0.140926 0.233752
2026-03-08 0.018432 0.026486 0.038630 0.059112 0.094618 0.157545 0.287908
2026-03-15 0.015398 0.022814 0.034456 0.055063 0.092997 0.165381 0.330621
2026-03-22 0.013720 0.021000 0.032932 0.055200 0.099029 0.190049 0.423248
2026-03-29 0.012509 0.019763 0.032168 0.056577 0.108033 0.224885 0.564841
2026-04-05 0.011302 0.018358 0.030890 0.056755 0.114845 0.258450 0.732409
2026-04-12 0.010222 0.017028 0.029538 0.056527 0.120891 0.293731 0.942376
2026-04-19 0.009167 0.015605 0.027792 0.055126 0.123892 0.323086 1.168305
2026-04-26 0.008119 0.014081 0.025666 0.052555 0.123541 0.344050 1.396985
2026-05-03 0.007472 0.013243 0.024799 0.052729 0.130851 0.395337 1.866010
2026-05-10 0.006910 0.012500 0.024019 0.052970 0.138685 0.455314 2.527035
2026-05-17 0.006468 0.011943 0.023556 0.053933 0.149373 0.536560 3.586495
2026-05-24 0.006057 0.011399 0.023039 0.054661 0.159856 0.628299 5.120364
2026-05-31 0.005585 0.010670 0.021993 0.053708 0.164303 0.697255 6.800095
2026-06-07 0.005024 0.009692 0.020232 0.050347 0.158666 0.709136 7.855411
2026-06-14 0.004731 0.009269 0.019748 0.050671 0.167732 0.818458 11.390749
2026-06-21 0.004520 0.009006 0.019622 0.052082 0.182214 0.984808 18.272545
2026-06-28 0.004274 0.008637 0.019174 0.052386 0.192296 1.139155 28.000106
2026-07-05 0.004034 0.008255 0.018641 0.052296 0.200769 1.299091 42.867578